The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has commenced its 306th policy meeting in Abuja amid widespread expectations that it will retain the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 per cent.

Economists, bankers and investment analysts say persistent inflationary pressures, exchange rate concerns and heightened global economic uncertainties are likely to compel the apex bank to leave the policy rate unchanged when it concludes the meeting.

The two-day meeting, which runs from July 20 to 21, is expected to determine the direction of Nigeria’s monetary policy at a time inflation remains elevated despite recent moderation, while geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks to global commodity markets.

Leading the expectations is Access Bank’s Economic Intelligence Unit, which said the current macroeconomic environment supports maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to preserve price stability and sustain investor confidence.

According to Access Bank, although Nigeria’s economy has shown signs of resilience, inflation remains the most significant domestic challenge.

Headline inflation rose for three consecutive months before easing marginally to 15.91 per cent in June, while food inflation remains elevated at 17.52 per cent, reflecting continued pressure from transportation costs, agricultural inputs and food supply constraints.

The bank also pointed to renewed geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran, warning that volatility in global oil prices and shipping costs could trigger fresh imported inflation, making it risky for the CBN to begin easing monetary policy prematurely.